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☆ 'Big downside revisions coming': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns jobs data will shockingly turn sour in the next 6 months — and says a stock-market AI bubble is starting to unrav
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury

☆ Robert Kiyosaki, David Einhorn, and Gary Shilling are all worried about inflation — and so is the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The central bank's current chief, Jerome Powell, is yet to defeat his mythical beast — and Wall Street is getting worried. Powell warned on Wednesday that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over after annualized price growth accelerated to 3.2% in February. AdvertisementRaising the alarmBank of America analysts have suggested that stubborn inflation could mean the Fed doesn't start cutting rates until March next year. It's no wonder, then, that investors are waiting impatiently for the Fed to cut rates. Fundstrat's famously bullish boss, Tom Lee, proclaimed this week that it's dropping "like a rock" and the first rate cut is still likely to be in June.

Persons: —, Paul Volcker, Jerome Powell, Powell, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn, Greenlight, Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, Gary Shilling, Julia La Roche, We've, Merrill Lynch's, they've, Shilling, It's, Fundstrat's, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, of America, CNBC, Trust, Wall Street, Fed

☆ A notorious stock-market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 declines warns that conditions are 'consistent with the risk of an abrupt air-pocket, panic, or crash' — and the S&P will fall 50%-70%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami

☆ Market prophet Gary Shilling warns stocks could crash 30% — and says the odds are 'very much in favor of a recession'
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.

Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, —, Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback

☆ Consumers fended off a recession — but keep spending like there's no tomorrow
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."

Persons: —, Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American

☆ This legendary investor likes taking contrarian views — but only if they meet 3 criteria
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-11 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewFrom Michael Burry's "Big Short" against the housing market to Warren Buffett's warnings during the dot-com bubble, some of the biggest names in finance have taken contrarian stances that paid off. Legendary forecaster Gary Shilling is also defying market consensus by warning the S&P 500 could crash 30%, and predicting a recession will strike this year. He told Business Insider in an interview he actively seeks to disagree with Wall Street for several reasons. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, Michael Burry's, Warren Buffett's, Gary Shilling, Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, John Paulson, doesn't, Copernicus, David Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Newton

☆ Prepare for stocks to plummet 30% and a recession to strike any day now, legendary market prophet says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could plummet by as much as 30%, a legendary Wall Street forecaster has said. He said he was betting on Treasury bonds and the US dollar and against stocks and commodities. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPrepare for stocks to plunge by a third and a recession to strike imminently, a legendary market forecaster has said. "You'd have a further decline of about 30% from here to get that 40% overall decline, peak to trough," he said.

Persons: Gary Shilling, —, I've, Julia La Roche, we're, Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, he's Organizations: Wall, Service, Co, Reserve

☆ A new addition to Goldman Sachs' board could be a lifeline, or threat, to CEO David Solomon
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A change to the board of directors at a top Wall Street bank has raised questions about what it means for the CEO. Goldman Sachs board is reportedly planning to add Tom Montag, a former longtime Goldman exec who became the No. And as a former partner at the bank, Montag also brings with him a certain cachet. Such is life on Wall Street, where the line between friend and foe is never quite clear. From Mark Zuckerberg's martial arts-led comeback to Jeff Bezo's hot yacht summer, tech bros are feeling themselves these days.

Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, you've, —, we've, Tom Montag, Craig Barritt, Tory Burch, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Solomon, Montag, Solomon, Insider's Dakin Campbell, Merrill, Insider's Alex Morrell, Jeff Bezos, Clive Mason, Mark Zuckerberg's, Jeff Bezo's, Biden's, Jen Glantz, Pete Buttigieg, Jeffrey Cane, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Costco, Tory, Tory Burch Foundation, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Goldman, Solomon, BofA, Getty, Finance bros, Transportation, Starbucks, LinkedIn Locations: NYC, BofA, BlackRock, New York, London

☆ 'Price bubble' in A.I. stocks will wreck rally, economist David Rosenberg predicts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Economist David Rosenberg, a bear known for his contrarian views, believes enthusiasm surrounding AI has become a major distraction from recession risks. "No question that we have a price bubble," the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Thursday. "[This] looks very weird," said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist from 2002 to 2009. Just seven mega-caps have accounted for 90% of this year's price performance," Rosenberg wrote. While mega cap tech outperforms, Rosenberg sees ominous trading activity in banks , consumer discretionary stocks and transports .

Persons: David Rosenberg, CNBC's, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Jensen Huang Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft

☆ BlackRock is open to a major deal. Here's where it could look to expand as the banking crisis emboldens the world's largest money manager.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Rebecca Ungarino | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The banking crisis that unfolded last month has created opportunities for BlackRock. The potential for a "transformational" deal would expand the world's largest money manager. The banking crisis that unfolded last month with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has emboldened BlackRock, the world's largest money manager with some $9 trillion of assets. The Financial Times reported last December that BlackRock had "discussed whether to pursue a takeover of private markets manager Carlyle but decided against it," citing three people with knowledge of those discussions. "We are asking ourselves to reimagine BlackRock," Fink said on Friday.

☆ Overwhelming workloads, back-to-office complaints, and frustrations over pay: Why Merrill Lynch's support staff is leaving
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Rebecca Ungarino | Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

Less visible, though just as much the lifeblood of the firm, are Merrill's client associates. But we're not treated that way, and we're not stupid," an associate who recently left the firm said. "Our client associates are essential to the fabric of the firm, how we serve clients and grow," a company representative said. Yagyaev said client associates were "grossly underpaid" across the industry and their base should really be in the area of $80,000 to $90,000. An advisor who recently left Merrill and worked with CAs said some were leaving for raises of about $30,000 to work at other banks.

☆ Merrill Lynch's support staff is fed up. Here's why client associates at the massive wealth manager are heading for the door.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The support wants supportThere's another uprising on Wall Street. And at Merrill Lynch, which oversees $2.7 trillion in assets, there is plenty of dirty work that falls to the 6,500 CAs. But it's important to remember that we're a long way away from the spring of 2021, when Wall Street was making money hand over fist. Wall Street bonuses are expected to drop by as much as 22% from last year, Reuters reports. If you do one thing today, read this inspiring story about a Wall Street banker leading the evacuation of an Afghan colonel and his family.

☆ As families and 'Parrotheads' flock to campgrounds and RV parks, institutional real-estate investors see their next big score
▼ + stars: | 2022-05-23 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

Investors are eyeing profits in campgrounds and RV parks as Americans flock to the great outdoors. Camp Margaritaville RV Resort and Cabana Cabins Auburndale, Central FloridaThe trend is also driven by demographics. Sam Zell's Equity Lifestyle Properties, another large REIT that invests in RV parks alongside mobile homes, has also been busy. While it's not clear how much big investors have thrown into RV campgrounds, manufactured housing communities as a whole have seen a burst of Wall Street financing. After looking hard at multifamily and industrial, he settled with RV parks.

☆ Wealthy parents are taking out cheap loans to buy their adult children homes and save on taxes. Here's how it works and why it's feeding the all-cash bidding frenzy.
▼ + stars: | 2021-10-13 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

For wealthy parents, these loans are a way to pass on their wealth to their children at a low cost. Every week for the past 14 months, the wealth advisor Aaron Bell has had to help his affluent clients buy houses. With interest rates on loans as low as 2%, clients can save money by taking out loans they don't need, rather than liquidating their stock and incurring hefty capital-gains taxes. Parents pledging their investment accounts with their child as the borrower is a tax-efficient way to pass along assets before death. These lines are also secured by the value of the property, which means that as it appreciates, the adult child's dependence on their parents' assets decreases.

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